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Wildfire smoke EPA monitor flag

Wildfire-smoke episode, 2018-09-19

September 19, 2018

Named sources Dollar Ridge Fire 70,003 acres , UT · IRWIN 2018-UTNES-200383 Bald Mountain Fire 18,620 acres , UT · IRWIN 2018-UTUWF-000892 Pole Creek Fire 102,191 acres , UT · IRWIN 2018-UTUWF-000971

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 76.2 µg/m³ near Provo across 1 covered metro home to 760,531 people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 3.1 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 2.4 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Wildfire smoke”

Qualified frozen evidence supports wildfire smoke as the broad cause for this time-bounded episode.

EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Sep 19, 2018 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier RT — Wildfire-U. S.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2018-09-19, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah · Jan 1, 2020 corroborates

Utah's Air Quality: Zeroing in on Health Impacts

The University of Utah institute attributes elevated PM2.5 in Utah from July through September 2018 to the state's fire season, including the Dollar Ridge, Bald Mountain, and Pole Creek fires.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Wildfire smoke

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2018-09-19, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official…

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    76.2 µg/m³ near Provo

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 3.5 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Provo-Orem, UT

Monitor comparison window 2018-09-16 to 2018-09-22 · PM2.5 target: Spanish Fork

5 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 39.2 µg/m³

59% above nearby days

PM10 28 µg/m³

About the same as surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 39.2 µg/m³

59% higher than surrounding days

Before31.9 µg/m³ Event39.2 µg/m³ After20.1 µg/m³
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
PM10 28 µg/m³

About the same as surrounding days

Before28 µg/m³ Event28 µg/m³ After35 µg/m³
1 monitor · 24 HOUR
Carbon monoxide 0.074 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.066 ppm Event0.074 ppm After0.107 ppm
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 8 ppb

About the same as surrounding days

Before7.90 ppb Event8 ppb After6.40 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.040 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.033 ppm Event0.040 ppm After0.040 ppm
2 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 26.5 %

32% lower than surrounding days

Temperature 70.7 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Provo-Orem, UT 76.2 µg/m³ 3.5 Sep 19, 2018 #17 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

EPA AQS monitor qualifier 1

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RT — Wildfire-U. S.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Sep 19, 2018 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2018-09-19, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

Agency and publisher pages 1

  • Utah's Air Quality: Zeroing in on Health Impacts

    Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah · Jan 1, 2020 corroborates

    The University of Utah institute attributes elevated PM2.5 in Utah from July through September 2018 to the state's fire season, including the Dollar Ridge, Bald Mountain, and Pole Creek fires.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.