Thomas Fire smoke episode, 2017-12-13 through 2017-12-16
December 13, 2017 to December 16, 2017
Named sourceThomas Fire 281,893 acres , CA · IRWIN 2017-CAVNC-103156
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 100.7 µg/m³ near Oxnard across
1 covered metro home to 835,427 people.
1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the
average affected resident ≈ 7.2 cigarettes.
Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of
≈ 6.0 million cigarettes.
An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³
per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a
medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The basis for “Wildfire smoke”
Qualified frozen evidence supports wildfire smoke as the broad cause and supports grouping 2 records into the same time-bounded occurrence.
EPA monitor flagEPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 13, 2017official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-13, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 16, 2017official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-16, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 15, 2017official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-15, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened,
the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much
of that chain is documented for this event.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-13, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official…
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather
stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does
not assign the cause by itself.
Observed context · not attribution
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
Monitor comparison window 2017-12-12 to 2017-12-19 · PM2.5 target: Ojai - East Ojai Ave
4 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse29.6 µg/m³
164% above nearby days
Air movement3.52 kt
19% lower than surrounding days
PM1067.8 µg/m³
43% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.529.6 µg/m³
164% higher than surrounding days
Before9.56 µg/m³ Event29.6 µg/m³ After8.61 µg/m³
PM1067.8 µg/m³
43% higher than surrounding days
Before38 µg/m³ Event67.8 µg/m³ After42 µg/m³
Nitrogen dioxide13.5 ppb
26% higher than surrounding days
Before7.33 ppb Event13.5 ppb After9.07 ppb
Ozone0.027 ppm
About the same as surrounding days
Before0.032 ppm Event0.027 ppm After0.024 ppm
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity29.2 %
58% higher than surrounding days
Pressure980 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature61.2 °F
About the same as surrounding days
Wind3.52 kt
19% lower than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS
surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set;
missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate
layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond
them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent
of the smoke.
—
Episode peak
--cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between
covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading,
click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches
the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or
play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an
air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per
cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the
illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's
ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each
metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
What supports this account
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 13, 2017officialgovernment
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-13, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 16, 2017officialgovernment
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-16, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Dec 15, 2017officialgovernment
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 48 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2017-12-15, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
CAL FIRE identifies the Thomas Fire as an active December 2017 wildfire in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, placing the Oxnard-area event within the fire's smoke-impacted period.
Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District · Dec 16, 2017officialgovernment
The air district issued a December 16 smoke advisory citing shifting winds and ongoing smoke from the Thomas Fire burning in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.
AQS qualifiers are submitting-agency causal flags and do not by themselves establish EPA concurrence.
The evidence resolves the broad cause but does not require a named fire, facility, or incident.
Status and provenance
EPA monitor flagEPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given
its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and
signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates.
Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the
assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong,
tell us.