newson6.com corroborates
Wildfire smoke Likely
2016-02-18 Eastern Oklahoma wildfires episode
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 35.9 µg/m³ near Tulsa across 1 covered metro home to 1.1 million people.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.2 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.3 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The basis for “Wildfire smoke”
Three exact-window records converge on the same broad cause. NOAA satellite analysts observed remnant smoke across eastern Oklahoma from numerous Oklahoma wildfires, the NWS Tulsa office documented multiple large eastern Oklahoma wildfires, and contemporaneous Public Radio Tulsa reporting described wind-driven fires and smoke impacts near the metro. This supports wildfire smoke at likely confidence without claiming a named fire or a quantified smoke share.
Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.
Public Radio Tulsa · Feb 18, 2016 hypothesis
Wildfires Char Oklahoma
Same-day local reporting describes wind-whipped Oklahoma wildfires, heavy smoke, and evacuations, including impacts in and near the Tulsa metropolitan area.
National Weather Service Tulsa · Mar 1, 2016 hypothesis
Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena: February 2016
The NWS Tulsa storm report documents multiple large wildfires across eastern Oklahoma beginning February 18, including fires in Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pawnee, and neighboring counties under very dry and windy conditions.
Inference, not direct attribution
Same-day fire and smoke evidence: Satellite smoke analysis, an official fire record, and separate local smoke reporting converge on the affected place and date. This supports the broad smoke cause, but not a precise source share or one uniquely identified fire.
Evidence path
From source to city
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
- 1Inferred
Source or mechanism
Pattern-based explanation
Same-day fire and smoke evidence. Satellite smoke analysis, an official fire record, and separate local smoke reporting converge on the affected place and date. This supports the broad smoke cause, but not a precise source share or one uniquely identified fire.
- 2Documented
Air-mass movement
Transport into the affected region is documented
NOAA satellite analysts observed light-density remnant smoke across eastern Oklahoma during the event evening and attributed it to numerous wildfires burning in Oklahoma, with the smoke drifting toward western Arkansas and Missouri.
View transport source ↗ - 3Documented
Local response
35.9 µg/m³ near Tulsa
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.6 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
Event autopsy
What the instruments saw
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Tulsa, OK
Monitor comparison window 2016-02-15 to 2016-02-21 · PM2.5 target: Glenpool
195% above nearby days
24 kt maximum
Haze reported during 1 hour
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors PM2.5 28.9 µg/m³
195% higher than surrounding days
Before9.79 µg/m³ Event28.9 µg/m³ After8.72 µg/m³
PM10 77.5 µg/m³
252% higher than surrounding days
Before22 µg/m³ Event77.5 µg/m³ After19 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide 0.274 ppm
19% lower than surrounding days
Before0.429 ppm Event0.274 ppm After0.339 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide 5.62 ppb
40% lower than surrounding days
Before12.4 ppb Event5.62 ppb After9.33 ppb
Sulfur dioxide 2.25 ppb
140% higher than surrounding days
Before0.917 ppb Event2.25 ppb After0.938 ppb
Ozone 0.052 ppm
66% higher than surrounding days
Before0.028 ppm Event0.052 ppm After0.031 ppm
Atmospheric conditions
TULSA/LLOYD JONES, 9.7 km from the PM2.5 target24 kt maximum · No calm observed hours
1 observed hours at or below 3 miles
49°F to 78°F
59% maximum
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond
them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent
of the smoke.
—
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Affected metros
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa, OK | 35.9 µg/m³ | 1.6 | Feb 18, 2016 | #20 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
What supports this account
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena: February 2016
National Weather Service Tulsa
The NWS Tulsa storm report documents multiple large wildfires across eastern Oklahoma beginning February 18, including fires in Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pawnee, and neighboring counties under very dry and windy conditions.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
The report documents the fire occurrence and region, not the fraction of Tulsa PM2.5 attributable to those fires.
Smoke Text Product through 0200Z February 19, 2016
NOAA/NESDIS Office of Satellite and Product Operations
NOAA satellite analysts observed light-density remnant smoke across eastern Oklahoma during the event evening and attributed it to numerous wildfires burning in Oklahoma, with the smoke drifting toward western Arkansas and Missouri.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
The narrative establishes regional smoke presence and origin but does not prove that the smoke reached the surface at every Tulsa monitor.
Wildfires Char Oklahoma
Public Radio Tulsa
Same-day local reporting describes wind-whipped Oklahoma wildfires, heavy smoke, and evacuations, including impacts in and near the Tulsa metropolitan area.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
The report documents local fire and smoke impacts but does not analyze the regulatory PM2.5 measurement.
What remains uncertain
- The records describe several eastern Oklahoma fires, so the event is grouped by broad source region rather than a single named fire.
- The retained evidence supports wildfire smoke as the likely broad cause but does not quantify its contribution to the daily PM2.5 total.
Status and provenance
Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.