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Wildfire smoke Possible

2011-06-08 to 2011-06-09 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ wildfire-smoke episode

June 8, 2011 to June 9, 2011

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 58.2 µg/m³ near Allentown across 1 covered metro home to 886,418 people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 4.4 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 3.9 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Wildfire smoke”

NASA documented Wallow Fire emissions moving east across the United States and cited the contemporaneous AirNow warning for unhealthy air in the Eastern U.S. on June 8-9. This establishes a same-window wildfire-smoke episode but does not directly connect the Allentown monitor to one fire.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

NASA Earth Observatory · Jun 9, 2011 hypothesis

Carbon Monoxide from Wallow Fire

NASA showed Wallow Fire pollutants moving east across the United States and cited an AirNow notice for unhealthy air affecting the Eastern U.S. on June 8-9, the Allentown event window.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Source not directly documented

    The catalog has a grouping hypothesis, but no retained source directly establishes the proposed cause.

    Open question
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    Transport into the affected region is documented

    NASA showed Wallow Fire pollutants moving east across the United States and cited an AirNow notice for unhealthy air affecting the Eastern U.S. on June 8-9, the Allentown event window.

    View transport source ↗
    Documented
  3. 3

    Local response

    58.2 µg/m³ near Allentown

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.6 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Monitor comparison window 2011-06-05 to 2011-06-12 · PM2.5 target: Freemansburg

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 27 µg/m³

114% above nearby days

PM10 47.5 µg/m³

98% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 27 µg/m³

114% higher than surrounding days

Before11.8 µg/m³ Event27 µg/m³ After12.6 µg/m³
3 monitors · 24 HOUR
PM10 47.5 µg/m³

98% higher than surrounding days

Before24 µg/m³ Event47.5 µg/m³ After13.5 µg/m³
2 monitors · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 0.142 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.154 ppm Event0.142 ppm After0.100 ppm
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 13.6 ppb

22% higher than surrounding days

Before11.1 ppb Event13.6 ppb After8.27 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 2.75 ppb

26% lower than surrounding days

Before5.73 ppb Event2.75 ppb After2.03 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.042 ppm

22% higher than surrounding days

Before0.031 ppm Event0.042 ppm After0.028 ppm
4 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 73.4 %

About the same as surrounding days

Pressure 994 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 76.8 °F

13% higher than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 58.2 µg/m³ 5.3 Jun 9, 2011 #17 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

1 retained source

Official record

Carbon Monoxide from Wallow Fire

NASA Earth Observatory

NASA showed Wallow Fire pollutants moving east across the United States and cited an AirNow notice for unhealthy air affecting the Eastern U.S. on June 8-9, the Allentown event window.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The NASA imagery tracks carbon monoxide and regional smoke transport, not surface PM2.5 at the Allentown monitor.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.