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Wildfire smoke Likely

2002-03-08 March 8, 2002 Awendaw Fire District wildfire episode

March 8, 2002

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 47.4 µg/m³ near Charleston across 1 covered metro home to 869,940 people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.8 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.5 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Wildfire smoke”

Charleston's airport reported smoke for seven hours during the PM2.5 event, and Charleston County's official hazard plan records a 28-acre wildland fire in the Awendaw Fire District on the exact date. Easterly surface flow makes that same-metro fire the best current source explanation, but no source explicitly apportions the daily PM2.5 mass to it.

Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.

Charleston County Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan · Jan 1, 2005 hypothesis

March 8, 2002 Awendaw Fire District wildfire

Charleston County's official hazard mitigation plan records that a fire burned 28 acres in the Awendaw Fire District on March 8, 2002, citing the Charleston Post and Courier's March 9 report.

NOAA/NWS surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Mar 8, 2002 hypothesis

Charleston surface observations reporting smoke

Charleston, 9.4 km from the PM2.5 target monitor, reported the official present-weather code FU (smoke) during 7 observed hours inside the catalog event window.

Inference, not direct attribution

official_surface_smoke_plus_exact_window_source_occurrence.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Pattern-based explanation

    official_surface_smoke_plus_exact_window_source_occurrence.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

    Inferred
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    47.4 µg/m³ near Charleston

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.2 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Charleston-North Charleston, SC

Monitor comparison window 2002-03-05 to 2002-03-11 · PM2.5 target: FAA Tower

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 28.8 µg/m³

119% above nearby days

Air movement 4.99 kt

24% higher than surrounding days

PM10 33 µg/m³

50% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 28.8 µg/m³

119% higher than surrounding days

Before13.2 µg/m³ Event28.8 µg/m³ After9.95 µg/m³
2 monitors · 24 HOUR
PM10 33 µg/m³

50% higher than surrounding days

Before24 µg/m³ Event33 µg/m³ After11 µg/m³
1 monitor · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 0.450 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.571 ppm Event0.450 ppm After0.317 ppm
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 5.96 ppb

23% lower than surrounding days

Before11.9 ppb Event5.96 ppb After5.56 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 0.792 ppb

67% lower than surrounding days

Before2.69 ppb Event0.792 ppb After2.27 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.031 ppm

11% lower than surrounding days

Before0.035 ppm Event0.031 ppm After0.038 ppm
2 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Wind 4.99 kt

24% higher than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 47.4 µg/m³ 2.2 Mar 8, 2002 #8 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

2 retained sources

Official record

March 8, 2002 Awendaw Fire District wildfire

Charleston County Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Charleston County's official hazard mitigation plan records that a fire burned 28 acres in the Awendaw Fire District on March 8, 2002, citing the Charleston Post and Courier's March 9 report.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The plan records the fire occurrence but does not explicitly state that its smoke caused the Charleston PM2.5 measurement.

Official record

Charleston surface observations reporting smoke

NOAA/NWS surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Charleston, 9.4 km from the PM2.5 target monitor, reported the official present-weather code FU (smoke) during 7 observed hours inside the catalog event window.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The surface code establishes smoke at the nearby airport; it does not identify whether the source was a wildfire, prescribed burn, agricultural fire, or another local fire.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.