Wildfire smoke Likely
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 35.4 µg/m³ near Lakeland across 1 covered metro home to 852,878 people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.3 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.1 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.
Why we think this happened
An exact-date NWS Tampa Bay discussion documented dense smoke held over northeast Polk County, including a half-mile visibility observation at Winter Haven. A same-period federal incident report identifies the large Lake fire near the Lake-Polk county line and smoke threatening Interstate 4. Sarasota is outside the supported scope.
Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.
National Weather Service Tampa Bay via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 28, 2001 official
The NWS said a surface ridge was holding smoke over northeast Polk County, where Winter Haven visibility was one-half mile, and expected it to mix out only after the near-surface inversion broke.
National Interagency Coordination Center · Jan 26, 2001 hypothesis
The federal incident report records the 2,100-acre Lake wildfire near the Lake-Polk county line and identifies smoke as a threat to Interstate 4 immediately before the event.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
The NWS said a surface ridge was holding smoke over northeast Polk County, where Winter Haven visibility was one-half mile, and expected it to mix out only after the near-surface inversion broke.
View supporting source ↗Air-mass movement
NOAA HYSPLIT modeled 12 backward paths across multiple arrival times and heights. They show where the air traveled, not which source polluted it.
Explore the modeled paths ↓Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.6 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Monitor comparison window 2001-01-25 to 2001-01-31 · PM2.5 target: Baptist Childrens' Home
45% above nearby days
About the same as surrounding days
45% higher than surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
32% higher than surrounding days
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Monitor comparison window 2001-01-25 to 2001-01-31 · PM2.5 target: G.T. BRAY PARK
68% above nearby days
3 calm hours observed
0 hours at or below 3 miles
68% higher than surrounding days
19% higher than surrounding days
21% lower than surrounding days
137% higher than surrounding days
74% higher than surrounding days
13% higher than surrounding days
9 kt maximum · 3 of 24 observed hours calm
0 observed hours at or below 3 miles
42°F to 71°F
100% maximum
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Air-mass reconstruction
NOAA HYSPLIT traces the air arriving at each metro backward for 72 hours. Multiple arrival times and heights show whether the broad path is stable—or sensitive to assumptions about when and where the polluted layer arrived.
Air arriving near Lakeland-Winter Haven
Peak-date arrivals · 2001-01-28
Each line begins 72 hours before arrival and points toward the metro. Color represents arrival height; repeated lines represent 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC arrival assumptions. A path can show where the air traveled, but it cannot prove which source added the PM2.5.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Views from the selected metro
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 35.4 µg/m³ | 1.6 | Jan 28, 2001 | #7 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
National Weather Service Tampa Bay via Iowa Environmental Mesonet
The NWS said a surface ridge was holding smoke over northeast Polk County, where Winter Haven visibility was one-half mile, and expected it to mix out only after the near-surface inversion broke.
An official source supports the attributed cause for the stated place and dates.
The discussion does not support Sarasota.
National Interagency Coordination Center
The federal incident report records the 2,100-acre Lake wildfire near the Lake-Polk county line and identifies smoke as a threat to Interstate 4 immediately before the event.
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
The exact-date NWS discussion, rather than this incident summary, supplies the measured Lakeland-area smoke connection.
Likely Applicable reporting or a supported inference makes this the best current causal explanation.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.