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volcanic_emissions Possible

2008-05-15 Urban Honolulu, HI undefined episode

May 15, 2008

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 34.6 µg/m³ near Urban Honolulu across 1 covered metro home to 998,747 people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.4 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.4 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “volcanic_emissions”

Contemporaneous reporting says unusually thick Kilauea vog had reached Oahu and bathed Honolulu in haze during the same week. The report is not tied to the individual monitor-day, so confidence remains possible.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    volcanic_emissions

    The May 11 report says exceptionally thick Kilauea vog had blown to Oahu and bathed Honolulu in light haze.

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    34.6 µg/m³ near Urban Honolulu

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.6 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “volcanic_emissions” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Urban Honolulu, HI

Monitor comparison window 2008-05-12 to 2008-05-18 · PM2.5 target: Kapolei

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 34.1 µg/m³

233% above nearby days

PM10 31 µg/m³

About the same as surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 34.1 µg/m³

233% higher than surrounding days

Before10.3 µg/m³ Event34.1 µg/m³ After7.90 µg/m³
4 monitors · 24 HOUR
PM10 31 µg/m³

About the same as surrounding days

Before31 µg/m³ Event31 µg/m³ After31 µg/m³
4 monitors · 24 HOUR
Carbon monoxide 0.317 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.321 ppm Event0.317 ppm After0.312 ppm
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 2.12 ppb

38% lower than surrounding days

Before3.86 ppb Event2.12 ppb After3.41 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 2.19 ppb

87% higher than surrounding days

Before1.05 ppb Event2.19 ppb After1.85 ppb
4 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.009 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.017 ppm Event0.009 ppm After0.005 ppm
1 monitor · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Urban Honolulu, HI 34.6 µg/m³ 1.6 May 15, 2008 #15 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

2 retained sources

Official record

Volcano Watch: How voggy is it?

U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

USGS explains that the 2008 Halemaumau eruption increased volcanic gases and PM2.5 and documents the 2008 vog episode.

What it supports

Context for the event; this item does not establish the attributed cause by itself.

News report

In Hawaii, an ill wind blows in the vog

The Washington Post

The May 11 report says exceptionally thick Kilauea vog had blown to Oahu and bathed Honolulu in light haze.

What it supports

A retained source supports the attributed cause for the stated place and dates.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.