Daily PM2.5 peaked at 50 µg/m³ near Omaha across
1 covered metro home to 1.0 million people.
1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the
average affected resident ≈ 1.9 cigarettes.
Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of
≈ 1.9 million cigarettes.
An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³
per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a
medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The basis for “Stagnant pollution mixture”
Omaha's three-monitor daily PM2.5 level rose to more than four times the adjacent-window value, with fourfold PM10 and higher carbon monoxide. The local airport recorded weak wind, haze, mist, and restricted visibility, while NWS described a slow-moving surface ridge producing light wind and occasional haze. This supports stagnant mixed-pollution accumulation as a possible mechanism.
PossibleThis is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 5, 2010hypothesis
OMAHA/EPPLEY recorded calm conditions during 38% of event hours and wind at or below three knots during 63%. Observations included 6 haze hours, 12 mist hours, minimum visibility 0.25 miles.
EPA records show median daily PM2.5 of 43.1 micrograms per cubic meter across 3 monitors, 4.236 times the adjacent-window level. Co-pollutants at least 10% above the adjacent-window comparison were pm10 (4x), carbon monoxide (1.821x), sulfur dioxide (1.119x).
National Weather Service Omaha via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 4, 2010hypothesis
The NWS forecast covering January 5 described a slow-moving surface high dominating the period, producing light winds and occasional haze or light fog with visibility restrictions.
Inference, not direct attribution
official_surface_weak_dispersion_multimonitor_accumulation.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened,
the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much
of that chain is documented for this event.
official_surface_weak_dispersion_multimonitor_accumulation.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.
Inferred
2
Air-mass movement
The transport path has not been reconstructed
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to
these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Research gap
3
Local response
50 µg/m³ near Omaha
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro.
The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather
stations show what changed. This context tests the “Stagnant pollution mixture” explanation; it does
not assign the cause by itself.
Observed context · not attribution
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Monitor comparison window 2010-01-02 to 2010-01-08 · PM2.5 target: 4102 Woolworth Ave. on Healthcenter Warehouse
4 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse50 µg/m³
265% above nearby days
Air movement3 kt median wind
9 calm hours observed
What observers saw0.25 mi minimum visibility
Haze reported during 6 hours
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.550 µg/m³
265% higher than surrounding days
Before13.7 µg/m³ Event50 µg/m³ After10.2 µg/m³
PM1049 µg/m³
277% higher than surrounding days
Before12 µg/m³ Event49 µg/m³ After13 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide1.06 ppm
73% higher than surrounding days
Before0.613 ppm Event1.06 ppm After0.554 ppm
Sulfur dioxide0.979 ppb
7% higher than surrounding days
Before0.542 ppb Event0.979 ppb After1.21 ppb
Atmospheric conditions
OMAHA/EPPLEY, 9.3 km from the PM2.5 target
Wind3 kt median
6 kt maximum · 9 of 24 observed hours calm
Visibility0.25 mi minimum
14 observed hours at or below 3 miles
Temperature1.45°F median
-15°F to 8.1°F
Humidity79% median
91% maximum
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS
surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set;
missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate
layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond
them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent
of the smoke.
—
Episode peak
--cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between
covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading,
click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches
the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or
play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an
air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per
cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the
illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's
ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each
metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
What supports this account
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet
OMAHA/EPPLEY recorded calm conditions during 38% of event hours and wind at or below three knots during 63%. Observations included 6 haze hours, 12 mist hours, minimum visibility 0.25 miles.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
A single surface station documents weak ventilation and obscuration but not the full vertical profile or particle source mix.
Official record
Area Forecast Discussion: slow-moving surface high, light winds, and haze
National Weather Service Omaha via Iowa Environmental Mesonet
The NWS forecast covering January 5 described a slow-moving surface high dominating the period, producing light winds and occasional haze or light fog with visibility restrictions.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
The NWS forecast describes poor ventilation but does not identify the accumulated emissions or quantify their PM2.5 contributions.
Official record
South Dakota 2010 PM2.5 designation assessment
South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources / U.S. EPA archive
An official assessment of a separate December 2009 episode reports fine-particle transport and buildup across Iowa and Omaha under light winds and local temperature inversions, while distinguishing that episode from exceptional wildfire smoke.
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
This confirms a recurring Omaha accumulation mechanism but does not assess January 5, 2010.
EPA records show median daily PM2.5 of 43.1 micrograms per cubic meter across 3 monitors, 4.236 times the adjacent-window level. Co-pollutants at least 10% above the adjacent-window comparison were pm10 (4x), carbon monoxide (1.821x), sulfur dioxide (1.119x).
What it supports
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Limit
The broad multi-pollutant response does not apportion traffic, heating, industry, wood combustion, or secondary aerosol.
What remains uncertain
A single surface station documents weak ventilation and obscuration but not the full vertical profile or particle source mix.
The NWS forecast describes poor ventilation but does not identify the accumulated emissions or quantify their PM2.5 contributions.
The broad multi-pollutant response does not apportion traffic, heating, industry, wood combustion, or secondary aerosol.
The result is capped at possible because no official source apportions the event's local PM2.5 mass.
The same pattern also occurred in benchmark temperature-inversion and regional-secondary-PM episodes.
The strict joint-fingerprint rule achieved 22.2% precision for stagnant mixed pollution on the 56-case labeled benchmark.
This confirms a recurring Omaha accumulation mechanism but does not assess January 5, 2010.
Status and provenance
PossibleThis is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given
its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and
signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates.
Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the
assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong,
tell us.