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Stagnant pollution mixture Possible

2010-01-05 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA stagnant mixed-pollution episode

January 5, 2010

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 50 µg/m³ near Omaha across 1 covered metro home to 1.0 million people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.9 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.9 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Stagnant pollution mixture”

Omaha's three-monitor daily PM2.5 level rose to more than four times the adjacent-window value, with fourfold PM10 and higher carbon monoxide. The local airport recorded weak wind, haze, mist, and restricted visibility, while NWS described a slow-moving surface ridge producing light wind and occasional haze. This supports stagnant mixed-pollution accumulation as a possible mechanism.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 5, 2010 hypothesis

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA surface conditions, 2010-01-05

OMAHA/EPPLEY recorded calm conditions during 38% of event hours and wind at or below three knots during 63%. Observations included 6 haze hours, 12 mist hours, minimum visibility 0.25 miles.

U.S. EPA AirData hypothesis

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA joint pollution fingerprint, 2010-01-05

EPA records show median daily PM2.5 of 43.1 micrograms per cubic meter across 3 monitors, 4.236 times the adjacent-window level. Co-pollutants at least 10% above the adjacent-window comparison were pm10 (4x), carbon monoxide (1.821x), sulfur dioxide (1.119x).

Inference, not direct attribution

official_surface_weak_dispersion_multimonitor_accumulation.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Pattern-based explanation

    official_surface_weak_dispersion_multimonitor_accumulation.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

    Inferred
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    50 µg/m³ near Omaha

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Stagnant pollution mixture” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA

Monitor comparison window 2010-01-02 to 2010-01-08 · PM2.5 target: 4102 Woolworth Ave. on Healthcenter Warehouse

4 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 50 µg/m³

265% above nearby days

Air movement 3 kt median wind

9 calm hours observed

What observers saw 0.25 mi minimum visibility

Haze reported during 6 hours

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 50 µg/m³

265% higher than surrounding days

Before13.7 µg/m³ Event50 µg/m³ After10.2 µg/m³
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
PM10 49 µg/m³

277% higher than surrounding days

Before12 µg/m³ Event49 µg/m³ After13 µg/m³
3 monitors · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 1.06 ppm

73% higher than surrounding days

Before0.613 ppm Event1.06 ppm After0.554 ppm
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 0.979 ppb

7% higher than surrounding days

Before0.542 ppb Event0.979 ppb After1.21 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

OMAHA/EPPLEY, 9.3 km from the PM2.5 target
Wind 3 kt median

6 kt maximum · 9 of 24 observed hours calm

Visibility 0.25 mi minimum

14 observed hours at or below 3 miles

Temperature 1.45°F median

-15°F to 8.1°F

Humidity 79% median

91% maximum

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 50 µg/m³ 2.3 Jan 5, 2010 #9 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

4 retained sources

Official record

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA surface conditions, 2010-01-05

National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

OMAHA/EPPLEY recorded calm conditions during 38% of event hours and wind at or below three knots during 63%. Observations included 6 haze hours, 12 mist hours, minimum visibility 0.25 miles.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

A single surface station documents weak ventilation and obscuration but not the full vertical profile or particle source mix.

Official record

Area Forecast Discussion: slow-moving surface high, light winds, and haze

National Weather Service Omaha via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

The NWS forecast covering January 5 described a slow-moving surface high dominating the period, producing light winds and occasional haze or light fog with visibility restrictions.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The NWS forecast describes poor ventilation but does not identify the accumulated emissions or quantify their PM2.5 contributions.

Official record

South Dakota 2010 PM2.5 designation assessment

South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources / U.S. EPA archive

An official assessment of a separate December 2009 episode reports fine-particle transport and buildup across Iowa and Omaha under light winds and local temperature inversions, while distinguishing that episode from exceptional wildfire smoke.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

This confirms a recurring Omaha accumulation mechanism but does not assess January 5, 2010.

Official record

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA joint pollution fingerprint, 2010-01-05

U.S. EPA AirData

EPA records show median daily PM2.5 of 43.1 micrograms per cubic meter across 3 monitors, 4.236 times the adjacent-window level. Co-pollutants at least 10% above the adjacent-window comparison were pm10 (4x), carbon monoxide (1.821x), sulfur dioxide (1.119x).

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The broad multi-pollutant response does not apportion traffic, heating, industry, wood combustion, or secondary aerosol.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.