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Stagnant pollution mixture Possible

2008-01-07 Springfield, MA stagnant mixed-pollution episode

January 7, 2008

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 50.8 µg/m³ near Springfield across 1 covered metro home to 464,151 people.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Stagnant pollution mixture”

EPA placed western Massachusetts inside the exact January 7 particle-pollution episode. The same-day NWS discussion independently documented a stagnant southern New England pattern under high pressure, with fog, stratus, moisture buildup, and a low-level inversion. The evidence supports an accumulation mechanism, but not a specific emitting source.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

National Weather Service Boston/Norton via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 7, 2008 hypothesis

Area Forecast Discussion: stagnant southern New England pattern

The same-day NWS discussion described a stagnant pattern across southern New England under high pressure, with increasing warmth and moisture, developing stratus, fog, and a low-level inversion.

Inference, not direct attribution

documented_stagnation_overlap_possible.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Pattern-based explanation

    documented_stagnation_overlap_possible.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

    Inferred
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    50.8 µg/m³ near Springfield

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Stagnant pollution mixture” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Springfield, MA

Monitor comparison window 2008-01-04 to 2008-01-10 · PM2.5 target: LIBERTY ST PARKING LOT

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 42.5 µg/m³

91% above nearby days

PM10 45 µg/m³

No adjacent-day comparison

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 42.5 µg/m³

91% higher than surrounding days

Before22.3 µg/m³ Event42.5 µg/m³ After6.60 µg/m³
3 monitors · 24 HOUR
PM10 45 µg/m³

No adjacent-day comparison

Before Event45 µg/m³ After
2 monitors · 24 HOUR
Carbon monoxide 1.64 ppm

78% higher than surrounding days

Before0.922 ppm Event1.64 ppm After0.765 ppm
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 33 ppb

7% higher than surrounding days

Before30.8 ppb Event33 ppb After12.9 ppb
3 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 9.30 ppb

24% higher than surrounding days

Before9.69 ppb Event9.30 ppb After3.04 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.003 ppm

69% lower than surrounding days

Before0.006 ppm Event0.003 ppm After0.018 ppm
2 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 77 %

23% higher than surrounding days

Pressure 997 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 41.4 °F

12% higher than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Springfield, MA 50.8 µg/m³ 2.3 Jan 7, 2008 #13 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

2 retained sources

Official record

Poor Air Quality Predicted for Much of New England on Monday, January 7, 2008

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

EPA forecast unhealthy particle pollution for western Massachusetts on January 7, 2008, with elevated levels expected to continue into January 8.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

EPA establishes the Springfield-area particle episode but lists only generic particle-source categories rather than an event-specific source.

Official record

Area Forecast Discussion: stagnant southern New England pattern

National Weather Service Boston/Norton via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

The same-day NWS discussion described a stagnant pattern across southern New England under high pressure, with increasing warmth and moisture, developing stratus, fog, and a low-level inversion.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The forecast discussion establishes the accumulation setting but does not identify the emitting sources trapped within it.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.