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Regional secondary PM Possible

2005-08-05 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC regional secondary-particle pollution episode

August 5, 2005

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 44.9 µg/m³ near Charlotte across 1 covered metro home to 2.9 million people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.5 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 4.4 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Regional secondary PM”

Exact-date NWS and surface observations document a stagnant, hazy, nearly calm Charlotte air mass while regulatory monitors show a broad, continuing PM2.5 episode that fell sharply after the pattern changed. EPA's North Carolina assessment identifies sulfate-dominated regional haze as the usual summertime fine-particle mechanism under stagnant, humid, low-wind conditions. Together these support regional secondary PM as a possible mechanism, not an exact-day source apportionment.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

U.S. EPA AirData hypothesis

Charlotte multi-monitor pollution fingerprint, August 5, 2005

EPA records show daily PM2.5 near 42 micrograms per cubic meter across five federal-reference monitors and 43.6 across two additional monitoring series during a continuing episode; the comparison medians fell to roughly 11 and 7 micrograms per cubic meter afterward.

National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet hypothesis

Charlotte surface conditions, August 5, 2005

Charlotte's official surface station recorded 14 calm hours, 16 hours at or below three knots, 12 hours of haze, and 12 hours of mist on August 5.

Inference, not direct attribution

multi_monitor_fingerprint_with_local_seasonal_profile_possible.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Pattern-based explanation

    multi_monitor_fingerprint_with_local_seasonal_profile_possible.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.

    Inferred
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    44.9 µg/m³ near Charlotte

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.0 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Regional secondary PM” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Monitor comparison window 2005-08-02 to 2005-08-08

5 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 42 µg/m³

29% above nearby days

Air movement 0.769 kt

32% lower than surrounding days

Carbon monoxide 0.711 ppm

15% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 42 µg/m³

29% higher than surrounding days

Before38.9 µg/m³ Event42 µg/m³ After10.7 µg/m³
5 monitors · 24 HOUR
Carbon monoxide 0.711 ppm

15% higher than surrounding days

Before0.663 ppm Event0.711 ppm After0.369 ppm
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 15.1 ppb

About the same as surrounding days

Before19.3 ppb Event15.1 ppb After5.33 ppb
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 0.708 ppb

48% lower than surrounding days

Before1.43 ppb Event0.708 ppb After0.125 ppb
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.044 ppm

8% higher than surrounding days

Before0.043 ppm Event0.044 ppm After0.024 ppm
9 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 68.9 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Pressure 994 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 80.5 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Wind 0.769 kt

32% lower than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 44.9 µg/m³ 2.0 Aug 5, 2005 #9 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

4 retained sources

Official record

Charlotte multi-monitor pollution fingerprint, August 5, 2005

U.S. EPA AirData

EPA records show daily PM2.5 near 42 micrograms per cubic meter across five federal-reference monitors and 43.6 across two additional monitoring series during a continuing episode; the comparison medians fell to roughly 11 and 7 micrograms per cubic meter afterward.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The monitor response establishes a broad particle episode but does not determine its chemical composition or exclude transported smoke.

Official record

Area Forecast Discussion: stagnant pattern with fog and haze

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

The exact-date NWS discussion called the pattern stagnant and anticipated reduced visibility from mist and haze around its terminal forecast sites.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The discussion documents the atmospheric setting but does not attribute Charlotte's measured PM2.5 to a chemical component or source sector.

Official record

Charlotte surface conditions, August 5, 2005

National Weather Service surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Charlotte's official surface station recorded 14 calm hours, 16 hours at or below three knots, 12 hours of haze, and 12 hours of mist on August 5.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

Surface haze supports the episode setting but does not identify the aerosol's source or composition.

Official record

North Carolina's Air Quality Multi-Pollutant Process

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and North Carolina Division of Air Quality

The official North Carolina assessment says sulfate is the largest contributor to regional haze and that peak southeastern hazy days occur in summer under stagnant weather, high relative humidity, high temperatures, and low wind speeds.

What it supports

Context for the event; this item does not establish the attributed cause by itself.

Limit

The assessment describes the state's recurring seasonal mechanism; it does not provide exact-day chemical measurements for August 5, 2005.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.