Regional secondary PM Possible
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 44.5 µg/m³ near Augusta across 1 covered metro home to 636,760 people.
Why we think this happened
A peer-reviewed exact-window analysis identifies an anthropogenic extreme aerosol event over the Southeast on the same dates as the measured metro episode. The region-level match supports a possible regional-secondary-PM estimate but not a city-specific source allocation.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · Apr 15, 2021 corroborates
The peer-reviewed study identifies August 17-19, 2003 as a regional-scale extreme aerosol event centered in the Southeast, selected to exclude biomass-burning and windblown-dust cases and described as dominated by anthropogenic emissions. EPA near-surface PM2.5 observations were used to evaluate the event.
Inference, not direct attribution
exact_window_regional_secondary_aerosol_study_possible.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
The peer-reviewed study identifies August 17-19, 2003 as a regional-scale extreme aerosol event centered in the Southeast, selected to exclude biomass-burning and windblown-dust cases and described as dominated by anthropogenic emissions. EPA…
View supporting source ↗Air-mass movement
NOAA HYSPLIT modeled 12 backward paths across multiple arrival times and heights. They show where the air traveled, not which source polluted it.
Explore the modeled paths ↓Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.0 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Regional secondary PM” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
Monitor comparison window 2003-08-16 to 2003-08-22 · PM2.5 target: Medical College of Georgia
204% above nearby days
No adjacent-day comparison
204% higher than surrounding days
No adjacent-day comparison
89% higher than surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Air-mass reconstruction
NOAA HYSPLIT traces the air arriving at each metro backward for 72 hours. Multiple arrival times and heights show whether the broad path is stable—or sensitive to assumptions about when and where the polluted layer arrived.
Air arriving near Augusta-Richmond County
Peak-date arrivals · 2003-08-19
Each line begins 72 hours before arrival and points toward the metro. Color represents arrival height; repeated lines represent 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC arrival assumptions. A path can show where the air traveled, but it cannot prove which source added the PM2.5.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 44.5 µg/m³ | 2.0 | Aug 19, 2003 | #13 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
The peer-reviewed study identifies August 17-19, 2003 as a regional-scale extreme aerosol event centered in the Southeast, selected to exclude biomass-burning and windblown-dust cases and described as dominated by anthropogenic emissions. EPA near-surface PM2.5 observations were used to evaluate the event.
A retained source supports the attributed cause for the stated place and dates.
The study evaluates the Southeast event as a region and does not apportion the complete PM2.5 mass at the selected metro monitor.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.