Regional secondary PM Possible
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 51.1 µg/m³ near Springfield across 1 covered metro home to 464,151 people.
Why we think this happened
EPA's exact-date CSN sample for Springfield, MA shows ammonium sulfate plus ammonium nitrate made up 60.8% of reconstructed PM2.5 mass. This supports regional secondary-particle pollution as a possible mechanism for this place only.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
U.S. EPA AirData Chemical Speciation Network · Jan 30, 2003 hypothesis
EPA's exact-date CSN sample reconstructed 15.5 µg/m³ of PM2.5. Ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate contributed 9.4 µg/m³, or 60.8% of reconstructed mass; every usable site exceeded 50%.
Inference, not direct attribution
Same-day particle composition: EPA speciation observations on the peak date show a majority secondary-inorganic aerosol signature. This supports a regional secondary-particle mechanism, not a single emitting source.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
Same-day particle composition. EPA speciation observations on the peak date show a majority secondary-inorganic aerosol signature. This supports a regional secondary-particle mechanism, not a single emitting source.
Air-mass movement
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Regional secondary PM” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Springfield, MA
Monitor comparison window 2003-01-27 to 2003-02-02 · PM2.5 target: LIBERTY ST PARKING LOT
249% above nearby days
5 kt maximum
0 hours at or below 3 miles
249% higher than surrounding days
169% higher than surrounding days
50% higher than surrounding days
63% higher than surrounding days
50% lower than surrounding days
5 kt maximum · No calm observed hours
0 observed hours at or below 3 miles
-2.2°F to 28.4°F
92% maximum
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Views from the selected metro
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Springfield, MA | 51.1 µg/m³ | 2.3 | Jan 30, 2003 | #12 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
U.S. EPA AirData Chemical Speciation Network
EPA's exact-date CSN sample reconstructed 15.5 µg/m³ of PM2.5. Ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate contributed 9.4 µg/m³, or 60.8% of reconstructed mass; every usable site exceeded 50%.
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Chemical composition identifies the measured aerosol mechanism, not a particular emitting facility or source region.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.