Prescribed fire Possible
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 24.4 µg/m³ near Lakeland across 1 covered metro home to 852,878 people.
Why we think this happened
Lakeland's airport reported smoke during the PM2.5 event. The Florida Forest Service exact-date report lists 34 authorized burns covering 1,647 acres in Polk County, including 27 agricultural-pasture authorizations covering 1,646 acres. This makes controlled vegetation burning a reasonable source estimate, but an authorization does not prove that a burn was conducted or that its smoke caused the daily PM2.5 value.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
NOAA/NWS surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Jan 17, 2002 hypothesis
LAKELAND REGIONAL, 6.4 km from the PM2.5 target monitor, reported the official present-weather code FU (smoke) during 3 observed hours inside the catalog event window.
Inference, not direct attribution
official_surface_smoke_plus_exact_date_burn_authorizations_possible.v1: This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
official_surface_smoke_plus_exact_date_burn_authorizations_possible.v1. This inference is recorded in the catalog methodology.
Air-mass movement
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.1 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Prescribed fire” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Monitor comparison window 2002-01-14 to 2002-01-20 · PM2.5 target: Baptist Childrens' Home
118% above nearby days
94% higher than surrounding days
118% higher than surrounding days
94% higher than surrounding days
20% higher than surrounding days
11% lower than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Views from the selected metro
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 24.4 µg/m³ | 1.1 | Jan 17, 2002 | #20 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
NOAA/NWS surface observations via Iowa Environmental Mesonet
LAKELAND REGIONAL, 6.4 km from the PM2.5 target monitor, reported the official present-weather code FU (smoke) during 3 observed hours inside the catalog event window.
This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.
The surface code establishes smoke at the nearby airport; it does not identify whether the source was a wildfire, prescribed burn, agricultural fire, or another local fire.
Florida Forest Service
For January 17, 2002, the Florida Forest Service report for the Lakeland District lists 34 authorized burns covering 1,647 acres in Polk County. Twenty-seven agricultural-pasture authorizations account for 1,646 acres.
Context for the event; this item does not establish the attributed cause by itself.
The public report records authorizations, not proof that every authorized burn was carried out.
Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.