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Mixed causes Possible

2005-09-13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA mixed-source pollution episode

September 13, 2005

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 52.5 µg/m³ near Atlanta across 1 covered metro home to 6.4 million people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.8 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 12 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Mixed causes”

NOAA's same-day satellite narrative places a broad smoke-and-haze area over western Georgia, thickest over Georgia and Alabama, and attributes the smoke to western wildfires plus agricultural and controlled burns in the lower Mississippi Valley. The same-day NWS Atlanta discussion forecast clear but hazy skies, two-to-four-mile visibility overnight, and three-to-five-mile visibility in haze the next morning. The date, place, and stated limitations support possible confidence only.

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

NOAA Satellite Services Division · Sep 13, 2005 corroborates

Smoke Text Product: Eastern U.S. smoke and haze

NOAA's same-day satellite narrative places a broad smoke-and-haze area over western Georgia, thickest over Georgia and Alabama, and attributes the smoke to western wildfires plus agricultural and controlled burns in the lower Mississippi Valley.

National Weather Service Atlanta via Iowa Environmental Mesonet · Sep 13, 2005 hypothesis

Area Forecast Discussion: persistent local haze

The same-day NWS Atlanta discussion forecast clear but hazy skies, two-to-four-mile visibility overnight, and three-to-five-mile visibility in haze the next morning.

Inference, not direct attribution

Same-day particle composition: EPA speciation observations on the peak date show a majority secondary-inorganic aerosol signature. This supports a regional secondary-particle mechanism, not a single emitting source.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Mixed causes

    NOAA's same-day satellite narrative places a broad smoke-and-haze area over western Georgia, thickest over Georgia and Alabama, and attributes the smoke to western wildfires plus agricultural and controlled burns in the lower Mississippi Valley.

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    Transport into the affected region is documented

    NOAA's same-day satellite narrative places a broad smoke-and-haze area over western Georgia, thickest over Georgia and Alabama, and attributes the smoke to western wildfires plus agricultural and controlled burns in the lower Mississippi Valley.

    View transport source ↗
    Documented
  3. 3

    Local response

    52.5 µg/m³ near Atlanta

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.4 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Mixed causes” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Monitor comparison window 2005-09-10 to 2005-09-16 · PM2.5 target: E. Rivers School

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 35.1 µg/m³

13% above nearby days

PM10 57 µg/m³

39% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 35.1 µg/m³

13% higher than surrounding days

Before27 µg/m³ Event35.1 µg/m³ After33.4 µg/m³
9 monitors · 24 HOUR
PM10 57 µg/m³

39% higher than surrounding days

Before37 µg/m³ Event57 µg/m³ After53 µg/m³
1 monitor · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 0.575 ppm

10% higher than surrounding days

Before0.559 ppm Event0.575 ppm After0.450 ppm
3 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 18.8 ppb

21% higher than surrounding days

Before15.2 ppb Event18.8 ppb After20 ppb
5 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 2.25 ppb

About the same as surrounding days

Before1.88 ppb Event2.25 ppb After4.17 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.041 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.043 ppm Event0.041 ppm After0.037 ppm
13 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 74 %

5% higher than surrounding days

Pressure 983 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 72.8 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 52.5 µg/m³ 2.4 Sep 13, 2005 #24 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

3 retained sources

Official record

Smoke Text Product: Eastern U.S. smoke and haze

NOAA Satellite Services Division

NOAA's same-day satellite narrative places a broad smoke-and-haze area over western Georgia, thickest over Georgia and Alabama, and attributes the smoke to western wildfires plus agricultural and controlled burns in the lower Mississippi Valley.

What it supports

A retained source supports the attributed cause for the stated place and dates.

Limit

Satellite analysis does not establish how much of Atlanta's surface PM2.5 came from smoke versus the co-located regional haze.

Official record

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA PM2.5 composition on 2005-09-13

U.S. EPA AirData Chemical Speciation Network

EPA's exact-date CSN sample reconstructed 32.1 µg/m³ of PM2.5. Ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate contributed 20.7 µg/m³, or 64.5% of reconstructed mass.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

Chemical composition identifies the measured aerosol mechanism, not a particular emitting facility or source region.

Official record

Area Forecast Discussion: persistent local haze

National Weather Service Atlanta via Iowa Environmental Mesonet

The same-day NWS Atlanta discussion forecast clear but hazy skies, two-to-four-mile visibility overnight, and three-to-five-mile visibility in haze the next morning.

What it supports

This source supports a possible mechanism or occurrence; it does not establish the cause by itself.

Limit

The forecast discussion confirms local surface haze but does not identify its source.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Possible This is a transparent hypothesis supported by limited evidence or an explicit inference, not a definitive attribution.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.