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Mixed causes EPA monitor flag

2026-03-21 mixed causes episode affecting Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

March 21, 2026

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 50.2 µg/m³ near Augusta across 1 covered metro home to 636,760 people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.8 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.1 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Mixed causes”

The supplied retained evidence explicitly supports multiple material causes (prescribed-fire smoke and wildfire smoke) for this episode, so it is retained as mixed.

EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 21, 2026 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier IT — Wildfire-U. S.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2026-03-21, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 21, 2026 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier IM — Prescribed Fire.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IM, Prescribed Fire.) on 10 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2026-03-21, identifying prescribed-fire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Mixed causes

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2026-03-21, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official…

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    50.2 µg/m³ near Augusta

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 2.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Mixed causes” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Monitor comparison window 2026-03-18 to 2026-03-24 · PM2.5 target: TRENTON

4 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 44.7 µg/m³

179% above nearby days

Air movement 5 kt

17% higher than surrounding days

PM10 51 µg/m³

104% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 44.7 µg/m³

179% higher than surrounding days

Before13.2 µg/m³ Event44.7 µg/m³ After16 µg/m³
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
PM10 51 µg/m³

104% higher than surrounding days

Before25 µg/m³ Event51 µg/m³ After24 µg/m³
1 monitor · 24-HR BLK AVG
Sulfur dioxide 0.904 ppb

40% higher than surrounding days

Before0.554 ppb Event0.904 ppb After0.648 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.056 ppm

17% higher than surrounding days

Before0.043 ppm Event0.056 ppm After0.048 ppm
3 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 48.8 %

9% lower than surrounding days

Pressure 1008 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 70.8 °F

18% higher than surrounding days

Wind 5 kt

17% higher than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 50.2 µg/m³ 2.3 Mar 21, 2026 #6 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

EPA AQS monitor qualifier 2

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IT — Wildfire-U. S.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 21, 2026 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2026-03-21, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IM — Prescribed Fire.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 21, 2026 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IM, Prescribed Fire.) on 10 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2026-03-21, identifying prescribed-fire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.