Dust EPA monitor flag
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 75.5 µg/m³ near St. Louis across 1 covered metro home to 2.8 million people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 2.8 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 8.0 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The supplied retained evidence supports dust for this event; no supplied evidence establishes membership in a broader time-bounded episode.
EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 15, 2025 official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IJ, High Winds.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2025-03-15, identifying windblown or transported dust as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IJ, High Winds.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2025-03-15, identifying windblown or transported dust as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official…
View supporting source ↗Air-mass movement
NOAA HYSPLIT modeled 12 backward paths across multiple arrival times and heights. They show where the air traveled, not which source polluted it.
Explore the modeled paths ↓Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 3.4 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Dust” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
St. Louis, MO-IL
Monitor comparison window 2025-03-12 to 2025-03-18 · PM2.5 target: Branch Street
355% above nearby days
28% lower than surrounding days
952% higher than surrounding days
355% higher than surrounding days
952% higher than surrounding days
10% lower than surrounding days
38% lower than surrounding days
13% higher than surrounding days
39% lower than surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
5% lower than surrounding days
28% lower than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Air-mass reconstruction
NOAA HYSPLIT traces the air arriving at each metro backward for 72 hours. Multiple arrival times and heights show whether the broad path is stable—or sensitive to assumptions about when and where the polluted layer arrived.
Air arriving near St. Louis
Peak-date arrivals · 2025-03-15
Each line begins 72 hours before arrival and points toward the metro. Color represents arrival height; repeated lines represent 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC arrival assumptions. A path can show where the air traveled, but it cannot prove which source added the PM2.5.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 75.5 µg/m³ | 3.4 | Mar 15, 2025 | #3 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
AQS PM2.5 qualifier IJ — High Winds.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IJ, High Winds.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2025-03-15, identifying windblown or transported dust as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
EPA monitor flag EPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.