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Dust Agency determination

2024-06-20 Tucson, AZ dust episode

June 20, 2024

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 27.2 µg/m³ near Tucson across 1 covered metro home to 1.1 million people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.0 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.0 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Dust”

Qualified supplied evidence supports dust as the root cause of this event. The supplied record does not establish a coherent shared occurrence with neighboring candidates, so the episode remains event-specific.

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

Arizona air-quality authority via NWS · Jun 20, 2024 corroborates

Archived Tucson Air Quality Alert, June 20, 2024

The alert explicitly forecast widespread blowing dust and locally hazardous PM10 concentrations in the Tucson area. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Dust

    The alert explicitly forecast widespread blowing dust and locally hazardous PM10 concentrations in the Tucson area. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The transport path has not been reconstructed

    The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.

    Research gap
  3. 3

    Local response

    27.2 µg/m³ near Tucson

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.2 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Dust” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Tucson, AZ

Monitor comparison window 2024-06-17 to 2024-06-23 · PM2.5 target: ORANGE GROVE

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 17.3 µg/m³

199% above nearby days

Air movement 5.92 kt

24% higher than surrounding days

PM10 65 µg/m³

160% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 17.3 µg/m³

199% higher than surrounding days

Before5.70 µg/m³ Event17.3 µg/m³ After5.79 µg/m³
3 monitors · 1 HOUR
PM10 65 µg/m³

160% higher than surrounding days

Before25 µg/m³ Event65 µg/m³ After15 µg/m³
7 monitors · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 0.237 ppm

30% higher than surrounding days

Before0.152 ppm Event0.237 ppm After0.207 ppm
3 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 4.51 ppb

13% higher than surrounding days

Before3.47 ppb Event4.51 ppb After5.27 ppb
3 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 0.063 ppb

67% higher than surrounding days

Before0.046 ppb Event0.063 ppb After0 ppb
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.035 ppm

About the same as surrounding days

Before0.040 ppm Event0.035 ppm After0.034 ppm
8 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 22.5 %

About the same as surrounding days

Pressure 922 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 91.6 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Wind 5.92 kt

24% higher than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Tucson, AZ 27.2 µg/m³ 1.2 Jun 20, 2024 #16 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

NWS Air Quality Alert 1

  • Archived Tucson Air Quality Alert, June 20, 2024

    Arizona air-quality authority via NWS · Jun 20, 2024 corroborates government

    The alert explicitly forecast widespread blowing dust and locally hazardous PM10 concentrations in the Tucson area. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

News discovery (GDELT) 1

gdelt-doc-api 1

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.