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Wildfire smoke Agency determination

2023 mid-July Canadian wildfire-smoke episode

July 15, 2023 to July 18, 2023 · Origin: Canada

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 67.2 µg/m³ near Des Moines across 18 covered metros home to 32 million people. 10 metros placed a top-ten day in their record.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 2.2 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 70 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Wildfire smoke”

Qualified supplied evidence supports wildfire smoke for this event. It is grouped with 8 other supplied events because the evidence identifies Canada as the shared origin and the affected intervals form one continuous 2023-07-15 through 2023-07-18 occurrence. Qualified supplied e

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 15, 2023 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier IT — Wildfire-U. S.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 320 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-15, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 16, 2023 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 408 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-16, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official

AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 193 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Sequence: Des Moines (Jul 15) → Minneapolis (Jul 15) → Chicago (Jul 16) → Cleveland (Jul 17) → Columbus (Jul 17) → Akron (Jul 17) → Knoxville (Jul 17) → Winston (Jul 17) → Chattanooga (Jul 17) → Rochester (Jul 17) → +8 more metros

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Wildfire smoke

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 320 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-15, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official…

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    Transport into the affected region is documented

    Ohio EPA describes Canadian wildfire smoke moving into the Ohio Valley and building at the surface across northern Ohio on July 16–17.

    View transport source ↗
    Documented
  3. 3

    Local response

    67.2 µg/m³ near Des Moines

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 18 metros. The peak daily concentration is roughly 3.1 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Monitor comparison window 2023-07-12 to 2023-07-19 · PM2.5 target: PUBLIC WORKS, DES MOINES IA, FRM, SEQ. SAMPLER, SPM, ROOF

3 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 55 µg/m³

526% above nearby days

Air movement 2.93 kt

About the same as surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 55 µg/m³

526% higher than surrounding days

Before3.71 µg/m³ Event55 µg/m³ After12.7 µg/m³
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 3.65 ppb

14% lower than surrounding days

Before3.96 ppb Event3.65 ppb After4.92 ppb
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.038 ppm

14% higher than surrounding days

Before0.033 ppm Event0.038 ppm After0.029 ppm
2 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 61.9 %

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 77.5 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Wind 2.93 kt

About the same as surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 67.2 µg/m³ 5.2 Jul 16, 2023 #3 of its top days
Cleveland-Elyria, OH 63.5 µg/m³ 2.9 Jul 17, 2023 #8 of its top days
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 58.8 µg/m³ 2.7 Jul 16, 2023 #23 of its top days
Columbus, OH 58.7 µg/m³ 2.7 Jul 17, 2023 #9 of its top days
Akron, OH 58.6 µg/m³ 2.7 Jul 17, 2023 #5 of its top days
Knoxville, TN 54.8 µg/m³ 2.5 Jul 17, 2023 #19 of its top days
Winston-Salem, NC 54.2 µg/m³ 4.6 Jul 17, 2023 #5 of its top days
Chattanooga, TN-GA 53.5 µg/m³ 2.4 Jul 17, 2023 #6 of its top days
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 51.4 µg/m³ 2.3 Jul 15, 2023 #23 of its top days
Rochester, NY 49.9 µg/m³ 2.3 Jul 17, 2023 #5 of its top days
Dayton, OH 48.2 µg/m³ 2.2 Jul 17, 2023 #14 of its top days
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 46.1 µg/m³ 4.1 Jul 18, 2023 #6 of its top days
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 45.8 µg/m³ 4.1 Jul 18, 2023 #9 of its top days
Raleigh, NC 45.6 µg/m³ 2.1 Jul 18, 2023 #7 of its top days
Syracuse, NY 43.7 µg/m³ 2.0 Jul 17, 2023 #11 of its top days
Columbia, SC 40.4 µg/m³ 1.8 Jul 18, 2023 #15 of its top days
Greensboro-High Point, NC 40.3 µg/m³ 3.6 Jul 17, 2023 #19 of its top days
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 36.7 µg/m³ 1.7 Jul 18, 2023 #23 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

EPA AQS monitor qualifier 25

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IT — Wildfire-U. S.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 15, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 320 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-15, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 16, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 408 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-16, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 193 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RT — Wildfire-U. S.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 49 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RF, Fire - Canadian.) on 49 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 49 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 50 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 51 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 53 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RF, Fire - Canadian.) on 24 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 96 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 97 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 49 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 86 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RF, Fire - Canadian.) on 24 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 96 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 92 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RF, Fire - Canadian.) on 25 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 121 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier RF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RF, Fire - Canadian.) on 24 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 24 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 17, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 51 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-17, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 23 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 24 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

  • AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.

    U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 18, 2023 official government

    EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 95 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2023-07-18, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.

NWS Air Quality Alert 2

  • Archived Iowa Air Quality Alert, July 16, 2023

    Iowa Department of Natural Resources · Jul 16, 2023 official government

    Iowa DNR explicitly identified Canadian wildfire smoke affecting the Des Moines-area episode through July 16. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

  • Archived Chicago Air Quality Alert, July 16, 2023

    Illinois Environmental Protection Agency via NWS · Jul 16, 2023 official government

    Illinois EPA alerts explicitly identified wildfire smoke affecting Chicago during the event. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

Agency and publisher pages 7

News discovery (GDELT) 1

gdelt-doc-api 5

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.