Wildfire smoke Agency determination
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 115.6 µg/m³ near Minneapolis across 1 covered metro home to 3.8 million people. 1 metro placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 10.2 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 38 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.
Why we think this happened
Supplied qualified evidence supports wildfire-smoke as the root cause. The grouping includes only events linked by explicit shared episode evidence; otherwise this remains a single-event episode.
Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 30, 2021 official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-30, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 29, 2021 official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-29, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Jul 31, 2021 official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-31, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
Evidence path
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.
Source or mechanism
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-30, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official…
View supporting source ↗Air-mass movement
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Local response
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 5.3 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓Event autopsy
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Monitor comparison window 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-03 · PM2.5 target: St. Michael Elementary School
186% above nearby days
53% higher than surrounding days
83% higher than surrounding days
186% higher than surrounding days
83% higher than surrounding days
46% higher than surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
About the same as surrounding days
6% lower than surrounding days
53% higher than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Episode peak
-- cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Views from the selected metro
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
| Metro | Peak PM2.5 | Cigarettes, whole event | Peak day | All-time standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 115.6 µg/m³ | 11.5 | Jul 29, 2021 | #3 of its top days |
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-30, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-29, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
AQS PM2.5 qualifier IF — Fire - Canadian.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted informational qualifier (IF, Fire - Canadian.) on 168 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2021-07-31, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. An informational qualifier is an official submitting-agency flag, not a request for exclusion or an EPA-concurred determination.
An archived NWS Air Quality Alert for Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI, issued 2021-07-29T14:37Z, explicitly identifies wildfire smoke. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.
Minnesota DNR documents thick ground smoke in St. Paul on July 29, 2021 and identifies fine particulate matter from the smoke as creating health hazards.
Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.