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Wildfire smoke Agency determination

2020-06-18 Albuquerque wildfire-smoke episode

June 18, 2020 · Origin: Albuquerque, NM

Daily PM2.5 peaked at 35.1 µg/m³ near Albuquerque across 1 covered metro home to 926,303 people.

Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the average affected resident ≈ 1.3 cigarettes. Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of ≈ 1.2 million cigarettes. An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a medical dose.

Why we think this happened

The basis for “Wildfire smoke”

Supplied qualified evidence supports wildfire-smoke as the root cause. The grouping includes only events linked by explicit shared episode evidence; otherwise this remains a single-event episode.

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

National Weather Service via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · Jun 18, 2020 corroborates

Air Quality Alert AQAABQ

An archived NWS Air Quality Alert for Albuquerque, NM, issued 2020-06-18T21:53Z, explicitly identifies wildfire smoke. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

See every retained source and limitation ↓

Evidence path

From source to city

A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened, the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much of that chain is documented for this event.

Open the evidence ledger ↓
  1. 1

    Source or mechanism

    Wildfire smoke

    An archived NWS Air Quality Alert for Albuquerque, NM, issued 2020-06-18T21:53Z, explicitly identifies wildfire smoke. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

    View supporting source ↗
    Documented
  2. 2

    Air-mass movement

    The 72-hour air-mass history is reconstructed

    NOAA HYSPLIT modeled 12 backward paths across multiple arrival times and heights. They show where the air traveled, not which source polluted it.

    Explore the modeled paths ↓
    Modeled
  3. 3

    Local response

    35.1 µg/m³ near Albuquerque

    EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro. The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.6 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.

    Inspect the pollutant and weather signals ↓
    Documented

Event autopsy

What the instruments saw

Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does not assign the cause by itself.

Observed context · not attribution

Albuquerque, NM

Monitor comparison window 2020-06-15 to 2020-06-21 · PM2.5 target: Foothills

6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse 25.7 µg/m³

131% above nearby days

Air movement 3.52 kt

19% lower than surrounding days

PM10 57 µg/m³

68% higher than surrounding days

Pollution fingerprint

Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.5 25.7 µg/m³

131% higher than surrounding days

Before4.97 µg/m³ Event25.7 µg/m³ After15.3 µg/m³
5 monitors · 1 HOUR
PM10 57 µg/m³

68% higher than surrounding days

Before27 µg/m³ Event57 µg/m³ After37 µg/m³
5 monitors · 24-HR BLK AVG
Carbon monoxide 0.228 ppm

72% higher than surrounding days

Before0.114 ppm Event0.228 ppm After0.204 ppm
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Nitrogen dioxide 7.28 ppb

12% higher than surrounding days

Before5.81 ppb Event7.28 ppb After6.52 ppb
2 monitors · 1 HOUR
Sulfur dioxide 0.571 ppb

29% higher than surrounding days

Before0.371 ppb Event0.571 ppb After0.500 ppb
1 monitor · 1 HOUR
Ozone 0.049 ppm

11% higher than surrounding days

Before0.044 ppm Event0.049 ppm After0.047 ppm
5 monitors · 8-HR RUN AVG BEGIN HOUR

Atmospheric conditions

Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity 13.9 %

33% lower than surrounding days

Pressure 838 Millibars

About the same as surrounding days

Temperature 75.2 °F

About the same as surrounding days

Wind 3.52 kt

19% lower than surrounding days

Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set; missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.

Air-mass reconstruction

Where the air had been

NOAA HYSPLIT traces the air arriving at each metro backward for 72 hours. Multiple arrival times and heights show whether the broad path is stable—or sensitive to assumptions about when and where the polluted layer arrived.

Transport context · not source attribution

Air arriving near Albuquerque

Peak-date arrivals · 2020-06-18

Broad history Mostly southwest of the metro
72-hour reach 850–1,050 km
Sensitivity runs 12 modeled paths
Arrival metro
Near surface · 100 mLower atmosphere · 500 mHigher layer · 1,000 m

Each line begins 72 hours before arrival and points toward the metro. Color represents arrival height; repeated lines represent 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC arrival assumptions. A path can show where the air traveled, but it cannot prove which source added the PM2.5.

Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent of the smoke.

Episode peak

-- cigarettes

The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading, click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.

Views from the selected metro

Camera views near

Browse the camera map →

Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.

Affected metros

MetroPeak PM2.5Cigarettes, whole eventPeak dayAll-time standing
Albuquerque, NM 35.1 µg/m³ 1.6 Jun 18, 2020 #25 of its top days

"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each metro's Air Records page.

Public evidence library

What supports this account

Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.

NWS Air Quality Alert 1

  • Air Quality Alert AQAABQ

    National Weather Service via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · Emergency Department · Jun 18, 2020 corroborates government

    An archived NWS Air Quality Alert for Albuquerque, NM, issued 2020-06-18T21:53Z, explicitly identifies wildfire smoke. IEM is the archive, not the official system of record.

News discovery (GDELT) 1

  • Wildfire smoke alert for ABQ area Thursday morning

    Albuquerque Journal · Jun 17, 2020 hypothesis

    The archived title explicitly identifies wildfire smoke as the reason for an Albuquerque-area alert on the candidate morning. The legacy page could not be opened, so the article-body claim remains unassessed.

gdelt-doc-api 2

What remains uncertain

Status and provenance

Agency determination A government body issued a record naming this cause for this event: an NWS air-quality alert, a NOAA Storm Events record, or a state or local official archive.

This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates. Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong, tell us.