2010-03-09 wildfire-smoke episode affecting Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY
March 9, 2010
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 41.1 µg/m³ near Buffalo across
1 covered metro home to 1.2 million people.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the
average affected resident ≈ 1.5 cigarettes.
Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of
≈ 1.7 million cigarettes.
An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³
per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a
medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The basis for “Wildfire smoke”
Qualified frozen evidence supports wildfire-smoke as the broad root cause of the 2010-03-09 PM2.5 episode affecting Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY.
EPA monitor flagEPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 9, 2010official
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 3 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2010-03-09, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened,
the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much
of that chain is documented for this event.
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 3 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2010-03-09, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official…
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to
these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Research gap
3
Local response
41.1 µg/m³ near Buffalo
EPA monitors recorded the event across 1 metro.
The peak daily concentration is roughly 1.9 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather
stations show what changed. This context tests the “Wildfire smoke” explanation; it does
not assign the cause by itself.
Observed context · not attribution
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY
Monitor comparison window 2010-03-06 to 2010-03-12 · PM2.5 target: BUFFALO
5 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse41.1 µg/m³
99% above nearby days
Air movement5.45 kt
6% lower than surrounding days
Carbon monoxide0.475 ppm
6% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.541.1 µg/m³
99% higher than surrounding days
Before18.3 µg/m³ Event41.1 µg/m³ After20.7 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.475 ppm
6% higher than surrounding days
Before0.267 ppm Event0.475 ppm After0.498 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide30.5 ppb
66% higher than surrounding days
Before13.6 ppb Event30.5 ppb After26.6 ppb
Sulfur dioxide4.46 ppb
90% higher than surrounding days
Before2.46 ppb Event4.46 ppb After1.85 ppb
Ozone0.035 ppm
11% lower than surrounding days
Before0.044 ppm Event0.035 ppm After0.040 ppm
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity72.3 %
About the same as surrounding days
Pressure994 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature40.6 °F
About the same as surrounding days
Wind5.45 kt
6% lower than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS
surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set;
missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate
layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond
them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent
of the smoke.
—
Episode peak
--cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between
covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading,
click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches
the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or
play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an
air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per
cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the
illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's
ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each
metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
What supports this account
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
U.S. EPA Air Quality System and the submitting air monitoring agency · Mar 9, 2010officialgovernment
EPA AQS carries an agency-submitted request-exclusion qualifier (RT, Wildfire-U. S.) on 3 PM2.5 samples in the candidate CBSA on 2010-03-09, identifying wildfire smoke as affecting the samples. A request-exclusion qualifier is an official submitting-agency causal claim, but this endpoint does not establish EPA concurrence.
What remains uncertain
Agency-submitted AQS qualifiers are causal flags but do not by themselves establish EPA concurrence.
The supplied evidence does not identify a sufficiently specific fire or origin region for a broader merge.
Status and provenance
EPA monitor flagEPA attached an exceptional-event qualifier to the affected samples. The agency flagged the measurement itself; no separate agency record describes the event.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given
its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and
signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates.
Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the
assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong,
tell us.