January 31–February 6, 2005 Midwest stagnation and nitrate episode
January 30, 2005 to February 6, 2005
Daily PM2.5 peaked at 81.6 µg/m³ near Detroit across
14 covered metros home to 34 million people.
7 metros placed a top-ten day in their record.
Counting the extra PM2.5 above each metro's typical day, this event handed the
average affected resident ≈ 5.1 cigarettes.
Across everyone living in the affected metros, that is the collective equivalent of
≈ 176 million cigarettes.
An awareness illustration of outdoor exposure at 22 µg/m³
per cigarette (Berkeley Earth), counting only the event's ranked days; not a
medical dose.
Why we think this happened
The basis for “Other”
Qualified frozen evidence supports other documented PM source or accumulation mechanism as the broad root cause and supports grouping the contemporaneous affected events into one time-bounded episode. Qualified frozen evidence supports other documented PM source or accumulation mechanism as the broad root cause and supports grouping the contemporaneous affected events into one time-bounded episo
DocumentedAn agency or publisher page assesses this cause, without an agency record naming the event or an EPA qualifier on the data.
Aerosol and Air Quality Research · Mar 31, 2010official
Scientific assessment identifies a January 31–February 6, 2005 Midwest episode driven by meteorological stagnation and nitrate; it explicitly covers Iowa and Missouri, supporting the Des Moines and Kansas City portion of this multi-place event, but not an attribution for Omaha.
Sequence: Des Moines (Jan 30) → Kansas City (Jan 30) → Grand Rapids (Jan 31) → Minneapolis (Jan 31) → Indianapolis (Jan 31) → Chicago (Jan 31) → Cincinnati (Jan 31) → Columbus (Jan 31) → Omaha (Jan 31) → Dayton (Jan 31) → +4 more metros
Evidence path
From source to city
A cause is more convincing when the record connects three things: something happened,
the air mass moved toward the region, and local instruments responded. Here is how much
of that chain is documented for this event.
Scientific assessment identifies a January 31–February 6, 2005 Midwest episode driven by meteorological stagnation and nitrate; it explicitly covers Iowa and Missouri, supporting the Des Moines and Kansas City portion of this multi-place event, but…
The retained record does not yet show how air traveled from the proposed source to
these metros. A trajectory replay or dated plume analysis belongs here.
Research gap
3
Local response
81.6 µg/m³ near Detroit
EPA monitors recorded the event across 14 metros.
The peak daily concentration is roughly 3.7 cigarette-equivalents at the outdoor daily rate.
Before, during, and after the episode: nearby pollutant monitors and surface-weather
stations show what changed. This context tests the “Other” explanation; it does
not assign the cause by itself.
Observed context · not attribution
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-31 to 2005-02-09 · PM2.5 target: GR-MONROE
5 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse58.9 µg/m³
55% above nearby days
Air movement3.42 kt
16% higher than surrounding days
PM1043 µg/m³
70% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.558.9 µg/m³
55% higher than surrounding days
Before36.3 µg/m³ Event58.9 µg/m³ After7.80 µg/m³
PM1043 µg/m³
70% higher than surrounding days
Before— Event43 µg/m³ After7.50 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.921 ppm
69% higher than surrounding days
Before0.483 ppm Event0.921 ppm After0.296 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide36.1 ppb
28% higher than surrounding days
Before29.8 ppb Event36.1 ppb After11.7 ppb
Sulfur dioxide5.44 ppb
274% higher than surrounding days
Before0.958 ppb Event5.44 ppb After0 ppb
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Pressure1003 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature36.4 °F
16% higher than surrounding days
Wind3.42 kt
16% higher than surrounding days
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-31 to 2005-02-09 · PM2.5 target: Allen Park
5 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse68.3 µg/m³
43% above nearby days
Air movement2.51 kt
About the same as surrounding days
PM1057.5 µg/m³
83% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.568.3 µg/m³
43% higher than surrounding days
Before45.5 µg/m³ Event68.3 µg/m³ After14.5 µg/m³
PM1057.5 µg/m³
83% higher than surrounding days
Before26 µg/m³ Event57.5 µg/m³ After11 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.814 ppm
9% higher than surrounding days
Before0.815 ppm Event0.814 ppm After0.417 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide48.5 ppb
27% higher than surrounding days
Before40.6 ppb Event48.5 ppb After21.2 ppb
Sulfur dioxide16.6 ppb
171% higher than surrounding days
Before3.42 ppb Event16.6 ppb After2.29 ppb
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity75.1 %
9% lower than surrounding days
Pressure1003 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature32.8 °F
8% higher than surrounding days
Wind2.51 kt
About the same as surrounding days
Toledo, OH
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-31 to 2005-02-09 · PM2.5 target: RAPS
3 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse45 µg/m³
19% above nearby days
PM1038.3 µg/m³
63% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.545 µg/m³
19% higher than surrounding days
Before31 µg/m³ Event45 µg/m³ After12.5 µg/m³
PM1038.3 µg/m³
63% higher than surrounding days
Before19.5 µg/m³ Event38.3 µg/m³ After10 µg/m³
Sulfur dioxide13.6 ppb
31% higher than surrounding days
Before10.3 ppb Event13.6 ppb After5.73 ppb
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-28 to 2005-02-03 · PM2.5 target: Harding High School
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-27 to 2005-02-05 · PM2.5 target: Troost
6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse33.3 µg/m³
24% above nearby days
Air movement3.17 kt
21% lower than surrounding days
PM1025 µg/m³
About the same as surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.533.3 µg/m³
24% higher than surrounding days
Before19.1 µg/m³ Event33.3 µg/m³ After13 µg/m³
PM1025 µg/m³
About the same as surrounding days
Before25 µg/m³ Event25 µg/m³ After48 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.275 ppm
11% higher than surrounding days
Before0.246 ppm Event0.275 ppm After0.175 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide17.9 ppb
8% higher than surrounding days
Before12.4 ppb Event17.9 ppb After25.3 ppb
Sulfur dioxide5.75 ppb
82% higher than surrounding days
Before2.54 ppb Event5.75 ppb After2.79 ppb
Ozone0.007 ppm
47% lower than surrounding days
Before0.011 ppm Event0.007 ppm After0.035 ppm
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity86.9 %
14% higher than surrounding days
Pressure991 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature35.1 °F
About the same as surrounding days
Wind3.17 kt
21% lower than surrounding days
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-27 to 2005-02-05 · PM2.5 target: COUNCIL BLUFFS, FRANKLIN SCH.
4 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse36.7 µg/m³
55% above nearby days
PM1038.3 µg/m³
23% higher than surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.536.7 µg/m³
55% higher than surrounding days
Before17.7 µg/m³ Event36.7 µg/m³ After8.15 µg/m³
PM1038.3 µg/m³
23% higher than surrounding days
Before30 µg/m³ Event38.3 µg/m³ After20 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.675 ppm
9% higher than surrounding days
Before0.478 ppm Event0.675 ppm After0.552 ppm
Sulfur dioxide1.38 ppb
6% lower than surrounding days
Before1.56 ppb Event1.38 ppb After1.38 ppb
St. Louis, MO-IL
Monitor comparison window 2005-01-30 to 2005-02-05 · PM2.5 target: South Broadway
6 pollutant signals
Fine-particle pulse46.3 µg/m³
14% above nearby days
Air movement3.23 kt
5% higher than surrounding days
PM1046 µg/m³
About the same as surrounding days
Pollution fingerprint
Metro-wide median of reporting monitors
PM2.546.3 µg/m³
14% higher than surrounding days
Before40.6 µg/m³ Event46.3 µg/m³ After27.8 µg/m³
PM1046 µg/m³
About the same as surrounding days
Before38 µg/m³ Event46 µg/m³ After50 µg/m³
Carbon monoxide0.575 ppm
About the same as surrounding days
Before0.570 ppm Event0.575 ppm After0.637 ppm
Nitrogen dioxide27.9 ppb
12% higher than surrounding days
Before29.4 ppb Event27.9 ppb After24.1 ppb
Sulfur dioxide15.4 ppb
23% higher than surrounding days
Before12.7 ppb Event15.4 ppb After6.96 ppb
Ozone0.003 ppm
68% lower than surrounding days
Before0.009 ppm Event0.003 ppm After0.011 ppm
Atmospheric conditions
Nearby EPA weather observations
Humidity86 %
14% higher than surrounding days
Pressure1004 Millibars
About the same as surrounding days
Temperature32.3 °F
About the same as surrounding days
Wind3.23 kt
5% higher than surrounding days
Source: U.S. EPA AirData daily observations and, where available, nearby ASOS/AWOS
surface observations. Values are descriptive medians over the retained monitor set;
missing measurements remain missing. Transport and source evidence remain separate
layers because this instrument pattern does not assign a cause by itself.
Measured daily PM2.5 at EPA monitors, as cigarette-equivalents
EPA monitors sit in metro areas, so the colour clusters there. Land between and beyond
them is unmeasured, not clean: this map shows where IAQng has readings, not the extent
of the smoke.
—
Episode peak
--cigarettes
The smoke map's scale, replayed over this event: the surface interpolates between
covered metros' daily records, framed to the affected region. Hover for a reading,
click a metro to pin it to the card. Days a monitor did not report draw nothing.
Select a metro on the map to see nearby cameras. Where an operator archive reaches
the event, drag the divider to compare two moments, adjust either date and time, or
play the available event-day frames. Camera imagery is visual context, not an
air-quality measurement or proof of smoke.
No useful public camera views are currently available within 80 km of this metro.
"Cigarettes, whole event" totals a metro's ranked event days at 22 µg/m³ per
cigarette: what a person outdoors there breathed across the event, as the
illustration. "All-time standing" is where this episode's days sit in each metro's
ranked record (worst-area measure, since 1999). Full local context is on each
metro's Air Records page.
Public evidence library
What supports this account
Each card states what a source supports—and what it does not. Official records, research, reporting, community observations, and transparent inferences remain visibly different kinds of evidence.
Aerosol and Air Quality Research · Tanya L. Katzman; Andrew P. Rutter; James J. Schauer; Glynis C. Lough; Catherine J. Kolb; Sara Van Klooster · Mar 31, 2010official
Scientific assessment identifies a January 31–February 6, 2005 Midwest episode driven by meteorological stagnation and nitrate; it explicitly covers Iowa and Missouri, supporting the Des Moines and Kansas City portion of this multi-place event, but not an attribution for Omaha.
What remains uncertain
The retained evidence does not map the documented mechanism to a more specific catalog cause type.
Status and provenance
DocumentedAn agency or publisher page assesses this cause, without an agency record naming the event or an EPA qualifier on the data.
This episode was grouped from the monitor record by the catalog pipeline and given
its cause from the evidence listed above. It has not been individually reviewed and
signed off, so its boundaries, cause, and name may change as evidence accumulates.
Grouping policy common_sense_root_cause_grouping.v2. The cause label reflects the
assembled evidence above, not an IAQng detection formula. If it is wrong,
tell us.